Building Long-Term Resilience to Shipping Disruption

Global shipping networks now face pressures from two directions: geopolitical tensions and climate-related disruption, including El Niño and typhoon activity. Globally, just 27% of vessels arrived on schedule in September, down from July’s already low 33%, according to Xeneta data.

This decline in overall reliability has been accompanied by a sharp increase in average delay times, which are now approaching 6 days, up 2.4 days since the start of the second quarter 2026. This leaves supply chain leaders with a difficult challenge: building long-term resilience while disruption increasingly comes from multiple directions.

APL Logistics has previously examined the immediate actions supply chain leaders can take in the face of these disruptions. However, with little sign of geopolitical tensions easing and climate-driven shipping impacts likely to stay with us for the foreseeable future, the question now is how to prepare for a future in which these pressures will be a lasting feature of global shipping.

Waldo Basilla, Chief Operations and Commercial Officer, Asia, and Mario Hardt, Director, Ocean Product Development (Americas & EMEA), at APL Logistics share their perspectives on building long-term supply chain resilience.

Disruption Is Now a Structural Risk

The industry is facing a situation in which three factors compound:

• Lane closures or unsafe conditions directly reduce route options
• Rerouting can be made difficult by factors such as sanctions, port or trade requirements, and limited vessel capacity
• Climate change can further reduce the capacity and reliability of alternative routes

These impacts are cumulative. For example, MarineLink suggests that a large tanker on a Houston-Japan route would typically take 26 days. With El Niño conditions throttling traffic through the Panama Canal, however, an alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope could extend the voyage to 45 days.

But the impact reaches further than just voyage time.

As more ships choose routes around Africa, vessels may face further delays due to increased pressure on ports along the route. These longer voyages also increase fuel consumption, adding to carbon emissions and sustainability pressures. They tie up vessel capacity and increase costs throughout the supply chain as companies buffer inventory in response to delays.

As Hardt has previously emphasized, alternative routes are not solutions in themselves. They are simply options to evaluate within a wider set of constraints. “Customers should now be thinking of their options much earlier, to better account for these situations.”

Ultimately, individual businesses cannot solve this problem alone. Broader global and governmental focus on solutions will also be needed. Panama, for example, is exploring a new reservoir at Río Indio to stabilize the canal’s operations. Similarly, moving away from fossil fuels toward alternative energy sources in the supply chain can help control rising energy costs, but this requires further investment and infrastructure.

However, these global responses, especially in infrastructure, are inevitably slow to materialize. In the meantime, companies need both near- and long-term solutions to strengthen resilience and improve stability.

Building True Supply Chain Resilience

Companies increasingly need to make faster decisions and rethink how they source and move components or products to respond to these constraints. That starts by building long-term forecasting capacity. Scenario planning helps businesses better understand the potential consequences of shipping disruptions, longer transit times, higher fuel costs, and limited alternatives before these pressures materialize.

Basilla stresses that forecasting provides the flexibility needed to minimize disruption. “With comprehensive forecasting, you have the ability to get your products at the right time, perhaps lengthening lead times if the need is not urgent. You can also choose the best routing combination, simulate it, and understand the best possible lead time and optimal cost.”

End-to-end visibility is equally important, Hardt notes, allowing businesses to assess their options. Reliable information and trusted logistics partners help translate those forecasts into practical choices early enough to reduce or avoid disruption.  

Another key component is network design. Regular routes and transport arrangements can no longer be seen as fixed. Basilla adds that “resilience is really about finding the right combination of onshoring, nearshoring, dual-sourcing, and diversification.”

He notes, however, that these choices must be realistic and account for trade compliance, higher landed costs, carrier availability, and local infrastructure capabilities. Businesses must understand where additional flexibility provides meaningful protection for their specific exposure and operating needs, rather than simply adding suppliers “for resilience.”

Moving Towards a Stronger Supply Chain Future

The disruptions supply chain leaders now face often cannot be prevented. No single investment or routing strategy will completely eliminate exposure to global disruptions. But businesses can improve their long-term ability to anticipate risk and assess trade-offs, allowing them to respond without relying on expensive last-minute changes. The goal is not to eliminate uncertainty, but to create supply chains that can adapt to it now and in the future.

APL Logistics helps our customers strengthen forecasting, evaluate their network design options, and make informed decisions even as the supply chain environment changes. Reach out to our team to see how we can support your long-term planning.

‍Disclaimer: This article is issued for general information purposes only. APL Logistics accepts no responsibility for any information contained within this article and disclaims and excludes any liability in respect of the contents or for action taken based on such information.