Ocean Rates Ease as Imports Stay Strong and Tariff Debate Heats Up

As peak season winds down on the ocean side, rates are unsurprisingly slipping. And forecasters predict cheaper ocean shipping next year. Meanwhile, trucking capacity in the U.S. has stopped shrinking and shows no signs of rebounding, so freight costs on land are unlikely to drop quickly. The tariff debate also is heating up after the midterm elections as Democrats are expected to put up a challenge to rein in levies. 

Imports Stay Strong as Peak Season Winds Down

U.S. ports handled about 2.37 million containers of loaded imports in September, the busiest month of the year, according to the National Retail Federation. That was 12.6% higher than a year earlier. Volumes are expected to ease through December but stay above last year’s levels, and the outlook turns softer in early 2027. 

Most holiday merchandise has already arrived, though containers on the West Coast have waited a long time for trains. A possible strike by port security workers in Los Angeles and Long Beach is also still on the table, with the latest deadline pushed to November 20. The takeaway is that the rush is ending, but delays at West Coast ports could still affect late orders.

Ocean Rates Could Fall 30% in 2027

Global ocean container rates could drop about 30% in 2027, according to a new outlook from Xeneta. Two things drive the forecast: the global container fleet is set to grow faster than demand, and more ships are returning to the shorter Red Sea route, freeing up vessels. Relief would be welcome, because West Coast spot rates in October were still 343% above where they stood before the Iran war began in late February. 

Xeneta also warned that another shock could throw the forecast off, and that on-time performance remains weak, with only 27% of containers arriving on schedule in the third quarter. At the moment, it looks like even if freight rates fall with lower demand, that would not guarantee improved on-time performance.

Trans-Pacific Rates Slip But Still Double Last Year

Spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast dipped 1% last week to $8,245 per FEU, according to data published by Freightos. East Coast rates declined 2% to $9,708. Slower demand is a likely reason as peak season winds down, and monthly import volumes are forecast to shrink from September’s high through the end of the year. 

Even so, rates are more than double what they were a year ago, when West Coast rates were $2,958, and East Coast rates were $3,513. Part of the reason is that importers rushed cargo in early to beat high diesel costs and the expiration of the U.S.-China trade truce, which kept ships full for months. 

The busy season also left a mark on the ports. Rail dwell times at Los Angeles and Long Beach climbed to about seven days in September, which means containers sat longer before leaving the terminal. 

Manufacturers Urge Lawmakers to Keep Tariff Enforcement

The Alliance for American Manufacturing is asking newly elected lawmakers to keep tariff enforcement in place. The group argues that rolling back tariffs simply because of who introduced them would be a mistake, and it points to gains in the steel, aluminum, glass, and solar industries. 

Public opinion points the other way. A Reuters and Ipsos poll found that 62% of Americans support repealing the tariffs. Keeping a close eye on duty exposure is a smart move, as we outlined in our guide to IEEPA tariff processing and refund developments.

Trucking Jobs Hold Steady, and Capacity Stays Tight

Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows the number of truck transportation jobs was unchanged in October compared with September. The total sits at about 1.47 million jobs, roughly 1,600 below where it was a year ago. That erases a brief bright spot from last month, when truck jobs were up from a year earlier for the first time since early 2023. Warehouse jobs also remained stable, down only 300 from September. 

An economist at Uber Freight said the figures will likely be revised sharply early next year, with a steep drop in early 2026 tied to new regulations followed by a recovery. In plain terms, not enough new trucks and drivers are coming online to ease rates soon. Shippers should plan for tight truck capacity to continue into the new year.

Ship Seamlessly With APL Logistics

Ocean costs are easing slowly, tariffs remain unsettled, and truck capacity stays tight, so flexibility is your best protection. And this means coordinating freight, customs, warehousing, and last-mile delivery, often with different providers who don’t communicate with each other. With operations in more than 60 countries and over 200 facilities, APL Logistics brings it all under one roof. Contact us today to get started.

Disclaimer: This article is issued for general information purposes only. APL Logistics accepts no responsibility for any information contained within this article and disclaims and excludes any liability in respect of the contents or for action taken based on such information.