Ocean Rates Diverge Across Trade Lanes as Carriers Cut Capacity Selectively

Container rates are heading in two directions at once, and the busiest port complex in the U.S. is about to face a stress test. Trans-Pacific rates have stopped climbing, while Asia-Europe rates are rising again despite more capacity returning through the Red Sea. 

In other news, a threatened walkout by port security workers could disrupt Los Angeles and Long Beach terminals. Those ports already hold tens of thousands of import containers waiting for trains, and a new freight index projects record-setting costs across parcel, LTL, and truckload for the fourth quarter. 

Continue reading to see how ocean rates, carrier capacity decisions, peak-season pricing, labor risk, and rail congestion are shaping holiday freight plans.

Asia-U.S. and Europe Ocean Rates Diverge

Trans-Pacific spot rates were nearly flat last week, a sign the market has peaked and should soften through the rest of 2026, according to data from Xeneta. Rates to the West Coast edged up 0.2% to $8,311 per FEU, and East Coast rates rose 0.2% to $11,525, both still more than four times their pre-Hormuz crisis levels from February 28. 

Europe moved the other way. Asia-North Europe rates rose 6.8% to $3,698, and Mediterranean rates climbed 5.8% to $4,442, reversing steady declines since July even as carriers restored Red Sea services. Demand may explain this conundrum: Asia-to-Europe volumes grew 12.2% in the first seven months of the year, enough to keep rates up. This means that rates would collapse if demand weakened.

Drewry Index Shows Carriers Using Capacity Cuts to Hold Rates

Drewry’s World Container Index rose 2% to $4,585 per FEU, supported by strong U.S. import demand and carrier capacity decisions. Shanghai-to-Los Angeles rates rose 2% to $8,007, and Shanghai-to-Rotterdam rates rose 3% to $3,632. The more telling detail sits in the sailing schedules. Carriers announced only two blank sailings on the trans-Pacific for next week, down from six, while Asia-Europe blank sailings jumped to eight from two, tightening space on the lane where carriers want higher rates. 

Port conditions are improving: vessel waiting times at Shanghai fell from 97 hours in Week 38 to 38 hours in Week 42, while only two containerships entered the Persian Gulf in Week 42, down from five. 

For shippers, the lesson is that rates now depend as much on carrier capacity choices as on cargo volumes, which is why working with partners like APL Logistics, who can compare options, matters.

Freight Index Projects Record Costs for 2026 Holiday Peak

AFS Logistics and TD Cowen project a costly fourth quarter, with record parcel costs, truckload at its highest since early 2022, and LTL above 80% of its baseline for the first time. Ground parcel is forecast at 43.3% above its January 2018 baseline and LTL at 82.5%, while truckload sits at 23.4%. 

The index explains that while these numbers are high, they may not ease with fuel prices dropping, as carriers adjusted their surcharge tables, not pump prices, to drive 72% of the rise in parcel fuel surcharges since early 2021. Even if diesel returns to $2.91 per gallon, today’s surcharge would still be 23.75%. 

Shippers are advised to spread volume across carriers to protect capacity and limit demand surcharges, a cost pattern consistent with what we tracked when freight spending jumped as ocean rates rose across stretched markets.

Port Security Workers Threaten Strike at LA and Long Beach

About 250 union watchmen at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach could strike as early as 5 p.m. PST on Sunday, November 1. Members of ILWU Local 26 authorized the strike, although the Pacific Maritime Association says talks continue with federal mediators. 

Watchmen make up about 2% of ILWU workers at the two ports, but they work at terminals that handle roughly 85% of Long Beach cargo and 33% of Los Angeles cargo, and employers expect other ILWU members to honor picket lines, which could halt vessel, yard, and gate operations at those facilities. 

The watchmen’s contract expired in July 2025, and employers say their offer includes wage and pension increases. The local has not detailed its demands. This dispute is separate from the coastwide longshore contract that runs through 2028, so it does not signal a broader labor break, but a short walkout could still cause outsized delays when terminals are already busy.

Rail Backlog Grows as 35,000 Containers Await Trains   

Nearly 35,700 import containers were waiting for on-dock trains at Los Angeles and Long Beach on October 26. About 10,562 of them had waited at least nine days, including 8,133 of the 19,626 containers at Los Angeles, a 41.4% share compared with 15.1% at Long Beach. 

Average rail dwell across the complex rose to 7.19 days in September from 6.75 in August, while dwell for containers leaving by truck rose to 3.18 days from 2.95. Both ports set monthly records in September, with LA handling about 1.04 million TEUs and Long Beach 997,177, and the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association tied the longer dwell to the extended peak season. 

Ship Seamlessly With APL Logistics

APL Logistics’ transportation network helps you move containers by truck or alternate routing when rail capacity runs short and secure space as carriers adjust sailings, our customs brokerage & global trade team helps you keep cargo compliant and moving through port disruptions, and distribution & fulfillment gives you the warehouse capacity to hold inventory when delivery windows slip.

With operations in more than 60 countries and over 200 facilities, APL Logistics brings it all under one roof. This way, you won’t chase updates across four different vendors or learn about problems after the fact. Contact us today to get started.