May 13, 2026 in Industry News
Weak Demand, Stronger Truck Hiring, and Air Cargo Pressure Shape Freight Markets
The freight market is sending mixed signals. Weak consumer confidence and rising inflation are making the U.S. peak season appear less robust than usual. Despite these headwinds, truck hiring has picked up after months of softer labor market conditions, suggesting that some carriers expect firmer rates ahead.
Air freight is also cooling off from its initial war-induced jolt, but jet fuel costs remain hard to ignore. Tariff policy adds another layer of uncertainty, with importers potentially subject to refunds, re-liquidation work, and further legal delays. The Middle East-India cargo lane is seeing a greater balance as ports reopen outbound flows again.
This week’s freight picture looks more like a market trying to steady itself while market factors keep shifting beneath it. Continue reading to find out more.
Weak Demand May Leave Peak Season Flat
The U.S. peak shipping season may arrive with little force this year, as weak consumer confidence, rising inflation, and the impact of the Strait of Hormuz shutdown weigh on retail restocking plans. The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates expect lower imports to continue, even though May and June volumes may look stronger against tariff-hit 2025 comparisons.
The real test comes in summer. July imports are forecast at 2.2 million TEUs, down nearly 8% year over year, with August down 5.5% and September down 1.3%. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index also fell to a record low of 48.2. However, carriers are adding transpacific capacity, which may create a gap between vessel space and actual freight demand.
Truck Hiring Jumps as Freight Rates Firm
Truck transportation added 4,300 jobs in April, reaching 1,496,600 jobs, the largest one-month gain since September 2023. That earlier increase came after Yellow Corp.’s collapse, so April’s rise may be the stronger market signal.
The gain breaks a weak run. In the 12 months from May 2025, trucking jobs fell nine times, with only small increases in October and March. This reversal in hiring can be tied to stronger carrier confidence after nearly six months of rate improvement and tighter capacity. Warehousing was steadier, adding 500 jobs in April, though still far below last year. While oil price pressure has not yet affected hiring, it is likely to impact the market later.
Air Cargo Rates Ease, But Fuel Keeps Pressure High
Air freight markets are beginning to settle after the Middle East war disrupted capacity and pushed rates higher. Analysts say the market is now being shaped more by seasonal shipping than by the conflict’s initial shock. WorldACD reported a 19% weekly rise in Central and South American tonnage before Mother’s Day, helped by flower exports to the U.S. and Canada.
Asia-Pacific tonnage rose 3% before China’s May 1 holidays. Global air cargo spot rates still jumped 30% year over year in April to $3.34 per kilogram, while China-Europe rates rose 52% to $5.30/kg. Jet fuel remains the main risk, with IATA warning that supply and prices will test carriers in the coming months.
Court Ruling Opens New Tariff Refund Questions
The U.S. Court of International Trade has ruled that President Trump’s temporary 10% global tariff is illegal, calling the proclamation behind it “invalid” and the tariffs “unauthorized by law.” The case centered on tariffs imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, with the court rejecting the administration’s broad reading of the statute.
Relief was granted to spice brand Burlap and Barrel, toy company Basic Fun, and the state of Washington, but the court did not halt nationwide collections. Baker Tilly’s Pete Mento said the ruling could create a “massive potential refund and reliquidation issue” for importers already managing CAPE filings, protests, offsets, and reconciliation problems. The case appears likely to move to appeal, leaving importers with more paperwork and few clean answers.
Middle East-India Cargo Flows Start Moving Again
Middle East-India container flows are slowly restarting as alternative Persian Gulf ports reopen export gate-ins after weeks of congestion. Khor Fakkan and Fujairah in the UAE, along with Sohar in Oman, had been limited mostly to import discharges since the Middle East war began on February 28. Yard crowding and cargo evacuation limits forced carriers into a one-way model, with little room to pick up backhaul freight.
Forwarders told the Journal of Commerce that CMA CGM and feeder operators are now moving Middle East-origin containers into India. CMA CGM’s BIGEX service links Hazira, Mundra, and Nhava Sheva with Fujairah and Sohar. The carrier has also moved accumulated empty boxes into Nhava Sheva, helping ease tight container inventory in India.
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Disclaimer: The subject matter of this newsletter is provided for informational purposes only. All data is obtained from internal and external sources believed to be true and accurate at the time of publication. APL Logistics is not responsible or liable for any inaccurate information contained herein.