August 6, 2026 in Industry News
Capacity Tightens While Freight Demand Holds Flat
Freight demand has barely moved, but capacity has kept shifting underneath it. A court ruling on broker liability is impacting how carriers get selected for loads. Meanwhile, the federal government has opened a faster path to commercial driver’s licenses for military veterans, an answer to the labor squeeze carriers have been describing for months.
Rail is telling a similar story from a different angle: industrial freight is carrying traffic higher even as intermodal eases from its recent surge. In the air, rates are falling just as fuel costs climb, a split one analyst described as the market sending conflicting signals.
Freight Index Barely Climbs as Court Ruling Impacts Capacity
U.S. freight demand essentially held flat in May, according to transportation analytics firm Breakthrough, with its freight index edging up just 0.2% year over year. The numbers diverged sharply by category, however, with paper and packaging surging 9.1%, likely reflecting shippers front-loading goods in anticipation of price increases, while durable goods fell 3.3%, consumer packaged goods dropped 4.8%, and food and beverage slipped 2.6%.
Persistent 4.2% inflation and elevated energy costs are weighing on discretionary and staple spending alike, even with a resilient labor market. Breakthrough’s forecast ticked up slightly to 1.7% growth, although analysts flagged the underlying picture as fragile.
Capacity, not demand, is doing most of the work in this cycle. A May court ruling on broker liability is pushing brokers toward stricter carrier selection and higher insurance costs. Combined with non-domiciled CDL enforcement and English proficiency rules, the effect is a tighter market even where volume growth is scarce.
Industrial Freight Lifts Rail as Intermodal Eases
U.S. rail traffic totaled 527,162 carloads and intermodal units for the week ending July 25, up 2.5% year over year, according to the Association of American Railroads. Petroleum and related products led carload gains at 11.8%, followed by metallic ores and metals used in steelmaking at 9.3%, while coal fell 1.6% and chemicals slipped 0.6%. Intermodal volume rose 3.5% from a year ago but is cooling from its recent surge.
Year to date, U.S. railroads have moved 14.7 million combined carloads and intermodal units, up 3.3%, with North American volume across nine reporting railroads ahead by 2.9%.
Air Cargo Rates Fall Even as Fuel Costs Climb
Global air freight rates are easing even as jet fuel costs run about 66% above year-ago levels, a divergence David Kerr of JTD Advisory called the rate indexes and the physical market pointing in different directions. The Freightos Air Index has slipped to around $2.82 per kilogram, down from May’s peak near $3.35, while the Baltic Air Freight Index has declined for four straight weeks.
Demand is uneven by lane: Hong Kong-Europe volumes are down 24% year over year, and China-Europe traffic fell 10%, while China-U.S. volumes climbed 19% and Asia Pacific-U.S. spot rates remain 36% higher than a year ago.
Carriers are still investing regardless, with DHL Express expanding its Mammoth Freighters-converted 777 commitment and Qatar Airways Cargo, Saudia Cargo, and Royal Air Maroc all adding routes.
Fuel pressure may be catching up to pricing anyway: Cathay Cargo raised its Hong Kong export fuel surcharge for the first half of August, and ocean carriers including CMA CGM, MSC, Maersk, and ONE announced fresh emergency fuel surcharges tied to renewed Middle East hostilities.
Importers Sue Over Forced Labor Tariffs
At 12:01 a.m. July 24, the moment the temporary Section 122 import surcharge lapsed, new Section 301 duties of 10% or 12.5% took effect on goods from 60 economies accounting for roughly 99.4% of U.S. imports by value. Two lawsuits filed the same day at the U.S. Court of International Trade call the tariffs the third unlawful version of the same levy, after the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs in February and the Section 122 surcharge in May.
The duties layer on top of existing customs duties, antidumping and countervailing duties, and prior Section 301 duties, so goods from China and Brazil now carry several charges at once. Section 232 goods (steel, aluminum, copper, autos, auto parts, and timber) and USMCA-qualifying Canadian and Mexican goods are exempt.
The lead plaintiffs, spice importer Burlap & Barrel and toy company Learning Resources, both argue USTR skipped the country-by-country analysis Section 301 requires, pointing to a 133-day timeline for 60 investigations compared with more than seven months USTR spent on a single China investigation in 2017 and 2018.
Ed Gresser of the Progressive Policy Institute estimated the tariffs will cost American goods buyers about $100 billion a year, against roughly $800 million a year in shipments CBP has blocked on suspicion of forced labor content.
Veterans Get Faster Path to CDLs Through Freedom Haulers
President Trump has formally launched the Freedom Haulers initiative, a joint effort between the Departments of Transportation, Defense, and Labor to fast-track commercial driver’s licenses for military veterans.
Qualified veterans now have up to 24 months after discharge to bypass required knowledge and driving tests, double the window under the existing Military Skills Test Waiver Program, which more than 40,000 service members and veterans have already used.
The program covers Army motor transport operators, Marine Corps vehicle operators, Navy equipment operators, and Air Force vehicle and construction equipment operators.
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