July 24, 2026 in Industry News
Trucking Rates Rise as Costs Shrink Carrier Margins
June shipment volumes eased, but truckload and linehaul rates and overall transportation spend continued to grow. New 50% tariffs instituted by the U.S. will affect a broad array of Canadian imports, including those that qualify under the USMCA. And carriers are feeling their own squeeze. ATRI found that the average cost to run a truck hit a record in 2025, leaving many operators with thin or negative margins even after trimming fleets and staff. However, spending on AI infrastructure is lifting certain freight categories even as consumer and housing-related sectors soften.
Continue reading to find out everything currently shaping the freight market.
Cass Sees Freight Expenditures Jump as Volumes Decline
According to June data from Cass, freight pricing is rising as shipment activity slows. The Cass Freight Index fell 4.1% compared with the same month a year ago and 3.1% compared with May, the slowest June since 2020. Total freight expenditures moved in the opposite direction, rising 11.2% year over year and 2.2% month over month, as higher truckload rates and fuel surcharges drove shipper costs higher.
Cass’ Truckload Linehaul Index, which excludes fuel and accessorials, was up 5.5% from June 2025, but down 0.9% from May. Cass said inflation and pressure on household savings have delayed the expected bounce-back in volumes.
Canada Tariffs Cut Through USMCA Protection
As of August 19, Canada will be hit with a 50% tariff on many imports into the United States, including those that would be tariff-free under the USMCA. The list of covered items ranges from agricultural materials to chemicals, textiles, consumer products, wood, paper, machinery, and tools. It excludes energy, potash, goods already subject to Section 232 duties, and certain fish and minerals.
President Donald Trump invoked Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 after determining that Canadian policies regarding alcohol, dairy, and motor vehicles discriminated against U.S. commerce. The White House cited vehicle quotas, provincial limitations on U.S. alcoholic beverages, and tighter cheese quotas for U.S. suppliers.
The move escalates a yearlong trade dispute and cuts into protections that USMCA rules had provided for many cross-border shipments.
Record Trucking Costs Leave Fleet Margins Thin
ATRI said the average cost to operate a truck hit a record $2.336 per mile in 2025, up 3.4% from 2024. Excluding fuel, costs were up 4.2% to $1.854 per mile. The biggest increases were in tolls, repairs and maintenance, driver benefits, and tires. Carriers cut truck counts by 2.4%, idled an average of 10% of equipment, and trimmed non-driver staff by 7.8%, but margins stayed weak.
Truckload and refrigerated fleets were both under 1%, flatbed carriers averaged a 0.5% loss, and tank carriers were down 4%. ATRI’s numbers suggest rate gains may come too slowly to offset the cost burden facing many fleets.
AI Infrastructure Spending Pushes Truckload Rates Higher
TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index sees truckload rates hitting a four-year high in Q3 as fuel inflation, fewer carriers, and spending on AI infrastructure impact freight demand. Diesel prices soared about 51% from the start-of-year levels, and the U.S. carrier population shed more than 50,000 prospects over 12 months.
The ton-mile index for trucking rose 0.7% month over month in May and 1.4% year over year. Thirty percent of current pricing pressure is now due to concentrated demand, up from an earlier estimate of 10%. Electrical goods shipments increased 28.3%, professional and commercial equipment was up 11%, and machinery climbed 5.3%. Consumer-related sectors were soft, making freight growth dependent on continued AI capital spending.
J.B. Hunt Finds an Intermodal Opening
J.B. Hunt’s Q2 results signal a swift move to intermodal freight. The segment’s revenue increased 22% year over year to $1.75 billion, with loads up 10% and revenue per load up 11%. Volumes on the Eastern network rose 16% faster than transcontinental traffic, which grew 5%. Intermodal month-over-month growth increased from 9% in April and May to 12% in June.
J.B. Hunt sees opportunity to add thousands of loads using current container capacity, but driver recruiting and drayage capacity could temper the pace. Management also expects pricing to rise as older contracts reset to higher trucking costs.
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